Anyone who watches “The Voice” on a regular basis knows that, all else being equal, America will vote for a male country singer who looks and sounds like the male country music stereotype. However, if more than one performer is in the male country “lane,” the votes will be split, and someone else will win. That is what is going to happen during the finals next week.
The analogy to the GOP primaries in 2012 and 2016 is obvious. In 2012, Mitt Romney had the “moderate” (what I call the “Romney Coalition”) lane all to himself, and he prevailed. In 2016, the Bush “shock and awe” fundraising campaign failed to drive out the other contenders in his lane, and Trump won. The electorate didn’t change that much between 2012 and 2016, but their choices did.
Just think: if either Bush or Rubio had decided to stay out of the race, one of them probably would be the President-Elect today. Both of them would make lousy Presidents, but at least I wouldn’t wake up in the middle of the night trying to figure out how to create a fallout shelter in a state where you can’t have a basement.