Cabinet members typically start thinking hard about the future after the midterms. When the president is an unpopular and capricious lame duck, they are doubly likely to do so. Who will stay, and who will go?
The men who are most obviously identified with Trump and his agenda have nowhere else to go, so they will stay unless they are pushed. These include RFK, Vought, Lutnick, Patel, and Blanche. Hegseth is a special case; I will talk about him in a future post. All of the others–most notably Bessent–will probably depart for greener pastures in less than a year.