As I’ve noted innumerable times, the foundation of the Republican Party is a bargain in which the PDP faction gets tax cuts and business deregulation and the Reactionaries receive official support for the war on wokeness. The election of Trump did not fundamentally change this dynamic, although it did change the balance of power between the two factions and permit him to toggle back and forth without repercussions. But what happens after Trump leaves the scene? Will the GOP revert back to a party in which the PDPs hold the reins and the Reactionaries just provide the votes?
I don’t think so. I suspect there will be an effort on the part of at least one of the GOP presidential wannabes to return the party back to its Reaganite glory days. If the economy is struggling in 2028, there may even be substantial public support for a candidate who prioritizes the economy over culture war. I don’t think it will work, however. I believe the Reactionaries will maintain the ultimate control over the party for at least one more election cycle, largely due to the lingering influence of Trump, who isn’t really going anywhere.