A few thoughts on the “special relationship” under President Trump:
- Obviously, someone needs to explain to Trump that Theresa May speaks for the UK, not Nigel Farage. You would think that would be a fairly simple concept for him to grasp, but apparently not.
- Trump’s property interests in the UK are going to be an ongoing problem.
- The British government is going to want to start discussing a trade agreement as soon as possible in order to create some leverage in its EU negotiations and to prove to skeptics that Brexit won’t be a disaster. As I understand it, the Obama Administration takes the position that the Brexit negotiations have to be resolved first. Given Trump’s feelings about trade, don’t expect that position to change.
- The UK doesn’t run a big trade surplus with the US, and it carries its share of the load within NATO. That will help.
- Don’t be surprised if Trump reacts strongly if, as I anticipate, the British press has plenty of nasty things to say about him.
Expect the “special relationship” to stagger on, with some major hiccups along the road.