I anticipate that Trump will wash his hands of the Palestinians early in his term and essentially give Netanyahu a free hand to do whatever he wants. You might think, on its face, that he will be giving the Israelis a great deal, but the reality will be much more complex, for the following reasons:
1. Nature and politics abhor a vacuum: If the US no longer wants to act as mediator, the Russians and the EU will be happy to step in. The Israelis don’t trust either of those alternatives.
2. Keeping hope alive keeps the Palestinians quiet: Ongoing US involvement in an illusory peace process helps to prevent violence. If the process completely expires and the Palestinians decide they have nothing to lose, the likelihood of a third intifada goes up.
3. What are we getting for our money? At some point, Trump is bound to look around and start asking himself why the US is giving so much aid to Israel and getting so little in return.