Assume that you are a GOP presidential wannabe and that Trump will permit a fair election in 2028. J.D. is the heir apparent. How do you get past him?
The first step is to win over the Reaganite wing of the party–the Nikki Haley voters. They represent about 40 percent of the GOP electorate. You can do this by taking traditional GOP positions on supporting NATO, Ukraine, and Taiwan. Promise to restrain China instead of making it a partner. Criticize some of the administration’s more outrageous tariffs. Support Trump on securing the border but promise to limit deportations to serious criminals. All of that should lock up the Haley vote.
Next, you need to peel off about a quarter of the MAGA base. You can do this in small chunks. The racist vote is yours for the taking. You can win over opponents of Israel by attacking the Iran war and the Vance deal. J.D. will probably equivocate on tax increases on the rich to shore up Social Security; be a populist here and support them. Appeal to barstool reactionaries by taking the Trump line, not the hard pro-life position, on abortion. Finally, go after J.D. on AI and data centers. His ties to tech barons will not help him with that issue.
Two other factors beyond your control could also help you. If Trump is viewed as a failure by the electorate in 2028, Vance will wear his unpopularity. In addition, you may be able to win primaries just with the Haley vote if more candidates pile in to split the base. Don’t count on either of those things, however; hope is not a strategy.