As I indicated in Friday’s post, Trump’s foreign policy really will be operated on the basis of some well-defined (albeit stupid) concepts. In practice, however, his ignorance of conditions throughout the world may make it difficult for him to apply them consistently.
The following will be the hallmarks of his diplomacy:
1. It’s both business and personal: Trump will view himself as the nation’s negotiator-in-chief, so look for him to spend lots of face time with foreign leaders, including bad hombres like Kim Jong Un.
2. It’s blustery out there: Trump thinks that previous administrations didn’t play their hand strongly enough in the past. Expect lots of shouting, table pounding, nasty tweets, walkouts, and threats of war (both trade and military).
3. One administration, many voices: Given his lack of familiarity with the people and the conditions on the ground, expect him to change his mind openly and repeatedly, depending on the last person who spoke to him. In addition, there will be plenty of officials at the State Department offering “clarifications” after he oversteps his bounds. The result will be chaos, which may be part of his plan; after all, he likes to remain as unpredictable as possible in order to strengthen his negotiating hand.
4. Passive-aggression: He craves popularity, so he will probably make a practice of telling other leaders what they want to hear to their face, and then contradict himself when he gets home. That’s what he did in Mexico.
In other words, think of him as Duterte with nukes. It will be a roller coaster, to be sure: new crises and opportunities every day.