On MBS and the War

Unsuccessful wars, assassination plots, and regime change—it should all feel depressingly familiar to MBS, because it is what he did as a rookie ruler. He’s older and wiser now, unlike Trump.

The Iran war will be a success for him only if it results in permanent and positive regime change, which is unlikely. The most plausible outcome, an American commitment to cut the grass indefinitely, is ok with the Israelis, but a disaster for him, because it just prolongs the instability and the Iranian threat to him without providing him with any tangible benefits. Look for him to move away from Trump a bit if my prediction comes true.

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