Bret Stephens can see four possible conclusions to the war. The first is a popular uprising that results in a liberal democratic Iran; even he admits the odds do not favor the Iranian people overcoming the repressive apparatus of the regime and seizing the opportunity provided by their good friends Trump and Bibi. The second scenario, the Delcy option, isn’t supported by any facts on the ground. Even Stephens doesn’t welcome the last scenario—complete state collapse and civil war. That leaves only the third scenario as a reasonable possibility.
Per Stephens, if the regime remains in place and keeps the old objectives, it will be a zombie that will implode in time. I disagree. If the regime becomes more nationalist in the face of American and Israeli bombing, it will enjoy more, not less, public support, and will attempt to rebuild its deterrence capability as fast as possible. The American response will be to cut the grass on a fairly regular basis. Iran will therefore become the American Gaza.