ELECTION RESULTS: Trump doesn’t feel sufficiently threatened by the midterms to send troops to cities in blue states. As a result, the election is reasonably–but not completely–free and fair. The outcome is something between a blue ripple and a wave; the Democrats flip ten to fifteen seats in the House and two in the Senate. Constitutional crises loom for the next two years.
ECONOMIC STAGNATION: Uncertainty continues to prevail. Growth slows even further as a result of the tariff and deportation regime. If there is some sort of major shock–say, a big AI or crypto crash–it could be even worse. Trump, of course, insists that life has never been better, which doesn’t win him many fans among swing voters.
A MIXED RECORD IN THE COURTS: SCOTUS lets Trump fire anyone who is even debatably part of the executive branch except Lisa Cook, but rules against him on birthright citizenship and tariffs. Trump interprets the latter ruling as narrowly as possible to avoid giving refunds, which adds to the uncertainty referenced above.
LEGISLATIVE INACTION: Congress keeps the lights on but does little else.