Forty Days and Forty Nights

That’s how long the Democrats held out. In the end, however, Trump’s willingness to inflict pain on the American people exceeded the blue team’s tolerance for taking it. There was no prospect that the GOP would fold on the health insurance issue no matter how long the shutdown lasted and how loudly the voters screamed about price increases. It was time to capitulate.

And so, Trump and the Republicans have proved to the world that the Democrats have no real leverage in Congress, which is what really mattered to them. To put it more optimistically, the Republicans own everything that goes wrong over the next year. When they don’t reduce health insurance costs, it will be on them.

The blue team set a record for the longest shutdown in American history. The left can’t say they weren’t willing to fight. You can’t make much of an argument that starving SNAP beneficiaries is an acceptable tradeoff for a fruitless battle over health insurance with no exit ramp. And the Democrats actually won something valuable; the provision in the House bill prohibiting the GAO from suing Trump over impoundment is being removed. Given the Supreme Court’s most recent decision on standing and impoundment, that is a big deal.

It is suspicious that exactly enough blue team senators changed their votes. I suspect that was arranged with the leadership. A large majority, including Schumer, is still on record as supporting the shutdown. The most vulnerable members of the blue team consequently can claim that they wanted to continue to fight, which is the best of all possible worlds.