We are starting to see some evidence of resistance to the Trump agenda from GOP senators. Should we take it seriously? Here is my analysis:
- AGRICULTURAL INTERESTS: The Trump program of deportations and tariffs has always been completely inconsistent with the interests of farmers and ranchers. He’s making it worst by talking about increasing imports of Argentinian beef. The grumbling hasn’t translated into votes, however, and the rural areas are too invested in Trump to oppose him unless the economic problems go on for years, which is possible.
- FREE TRADE: Ronald Reagan still lives! Collins, Murkowski, McConnell, and Paul are completely opposed to Trump’s arbitrary tariff regime and have had the audacity to say so in public. That could matter if the farmers get mad enough to take action or if the Supreme Court rules against the tariffs. Otherwise, Mike Johnson will make sure no such votes take place in the House.
- FILIBUSTER: This is the biggest one. The GOP senators understand that the McConnell Project gives them an enduring structural advantage, and they don’t want to give it up in Trump’s short-term interests. Don’t expect that to change anytime soon.