With regard to the blue team’s ostensible objective–forcing the GOP to make a deal on Obamacare subsidies–it is already clear that the shutdown has been a failure, as nobody has openly broken ranks on the issue. The most you can say is that the public’s consciousness has been raised on the issue, and the GOP will be blamed if, as is likely, the government does nothing to solve the problem after it reopens.
There are a number of dates in the near future that could trigger the end to the crisis. Open enrollment starts on November 1. The end of SNAP payments in many states will start on that date. The election is a few days later. There is no obvious reason to go on after that, because the country now knows that the Democrats have no leverage in Washington on health care or any other issue, with the possible exception of farmer aid. Period.
Will the base be satisfied with a surrender in the face of millions of poor people going hungry? I’m guessing most of it will. The real danger is that the activists will conclude that the only possible answer is on the streets and behave accordingly, because Trump will meet them with force if they get violent.