The outlines of a deal are starting to become clear, and they closely resemble what I predicted years ago. Ukraine will give up the land it has already lost, because it doesn’t have the ability to take it back. It will also be excluded from NATO. It will, however, receive security guarantees that resemble those in Article 5.
If this deal ultimately happens–and it will require the consent of the Ukrainian people in one way or another–it will not be another Munich as long as Ukraine’s new borders remain defensible and the security guarantees are ironclad. It is the latter requirement that would concern me if I were a Ukrainian. Can Ukraine trust Trump–a man who rewrites his own deals on a daily basis–to meet the obligations in such an agreement, even if they are put in writing and ratified by Congress, which seems unlikely to me? I would have grave concerns about that, to say the least.
It is worth noting that Hitler received the Sudetenland without having to fight for it, and that Czechoslovakia’s revised frontier was left indefensible. In the case of Ukraine, the first statement is not true; the second is TBD, and depends on further negotiation.