Given Trump’s poor approval ratings and the likelihood of further economic turbulence in the future, the Democrats will go into 2026 as the slight favorites to win the House even if extreme GOP gerrymandering efforts prove successful. It is an outcome that Trump clearly fears. Should he?
If the Democrats do, in fact, retake the House, you can expect to see a series of constitutional and fiscal crises for the following two years. The blue team will conduct investigations; Trump will stonewall them. The House will shut down the government; Trump won’t care. Trump will impound funds, the House majority will litigate, and the final decision will be left to Mr. Trump’s poodle, a/k/a the Supreme Court. It won’t be a pretty sight.
In short, the House will become a perfect foil for Trump and Vance, who will blame it for all of the problems they have actually caused themselves with their mass deportations, tax cuts, and tariffs. As a result, I submit to you that a House that stays under the nominal (but not effective) control of the GOP would actually be the better result for the blue team.