October 7 was a huge tactical victory for Hamas. In the longer run, however, it was a disaster; Israel responded with far more force than expected, and neither Iran nor Hezbollah did much to help. Gaza is now little but a pile of rubble. The tactical victory turned into a strategic calamity.
The Israelis, for their part, have pulverized Gaza, but have no plausible plan for its future. They have alienated public opinion all over the world, including the United States, by using disproportionate force and showing little concern for the fate of civilians. The likelihood of an agreement with moderate Arab nations has gone down dramatically. In time, barring the complete ethnic cleansing episode that the far right dreams about, the angry population will rise again against Israel. Once again, a tactical victory may well prove to be a strategic defeat.
The Israeli campaign in Lebanon has been both a tactical and a strategic victory because the Israeli government, for once, knew when to stop. The attack on Iran has also been a tactical victory, but Iran’s nuclear capability has not been “obliterated,” to use Trump’s word, and the government’s determination to rebuild it is undiminished. In addition, Iranian public opinion has rallied around the government. In the end, this campaign, like the one in Gaza, will probably prove to be a strategic failure.