Trump is now threatening the Brazilian government with a 50 percent tariff if it doesn’t back off the Bolsonaro prosecution. Lula refused the demand and promised retaliation if the new tariff goes into effect. Should we be surprised?
I predicted this in late May. The problem, of course, is that Trump views himself as the unquestioned boss of the Western Hemisphere, and he won’t tolerate backtalk. Brazil, for its part, is a large country with extensive commercial ties with China; it has options if it loses access to the American market. Look for this situation to escalate quickly into something really ugly. I won’t be shocked if there is serious talk of military action.