GOP House members can be divided into three groups: idealistic CLs from bright red districts who want to cut the size of the welfare state dramatically and who will pay no price for doing so; PBPs from swing districts who know that big cuts will cost them their seats and the GOP its majority; and a large, fairly inert majority, which wants only to make Trump happy and get something–anything– done. Mike Johnson needs all three groups to get the “big, beautiful” bill to the Senate. Which side will cave?
Over the past two plus years, the Democrats have been willing to work with Johnson and the last two groups to keep the lights on. As a result, the CLs have been able to vote their ideology without sinking the ship. That won’t happen in this case, so recent history will not be a guide.
In the end, I think both fringes will give something, but the moderates will give more. They will be compensated with jobs in the administration after they lose in 2026.