I can only see two possible outcomes to Trump’s trade negotiations. If he decides that the ultimate objective is to isolate China, not to stop trade in the name of eliminating bilateral deficits, he will get the rest of the world to buy more American weapons (an achievable goal), energy (probably not enforceable), and agricultural products (ditto) in exchange for lifting the tariffs. This will do very little to bring back the economy of the 1950s, and it won’t be worth the economic pain it is causing in the short run, but it is an outcome that makes geopolitical sense.
If Trump sticks to the notion of reviving low-value American industry and eliminating bilateral trade deficits, however, there will be no deals, and confidence in our economy will dissolve very quickly. Faced with collapsing support at home, Trump will be tempted to treat his failures as an “emergency” which requires further despotism at home. That is the result which is truly to be feared.