Imagine that you are the US president and you want to lose a trade war with China. Here’s how you would do it, in a few simple steps:
- DON’T PREPARE THE PUBLIC FOR THE IMPACTS OF THE WAR: During the campaign, don’t put anything about tariffs in your commercials; just tell the public to trust you. On the few occasions when you are asked about tariffs, insist that foreigners pay them, not Americans, so there will be no domestic impact.
- ALIENATE YOUR ALLIES: You will need help from the rest of the world if you want to isolate the Chinese. Make sure you don’t get it by doing everything possible to offend them, and by treating them as no better than China.
- DON’T PROVIDE A CONSISTENT AND PLAUSIBLE RATIONALE FOR THE TARIFFS: Tell the public, for example, that tariffs will both raise trillions of dollars and encourage import substitution. Those rationales are mutually exclusive.
- CHANGE COURSE ON A WHIM: Investors crave certainty. Don’t give it to them. Change the tariffs on a daily basis. Any time someone offends you, BOOM! Here’s a side of higher tariffs!
Any resemblance to Trump’s approach to tariffs is purely coincidental, of course.