Trump is assuring us that scores of nations–not China, of course–are beating a path to our door to make a deal on tariffs. For once, I believe him. Will that solve the problem and put an end to the trade war?
No, because the supplicants are offering to reduce or eliminate tariffs on American goods, but tariffs aren’t the source of the imbalances. Trump imagines that legal barriers are the problem; in reality, the imbalances are caused by cultural and economic factors that are beyond the control of liberal democratic governments. Can the German government, for example, realistically demand that the German people instantly change their attitudes towards spending and debt?
As a result, don’t expect Trump to accept these offers, and the war will go on. The only real “solution,” from Trump’s perspective, would be a series of enforceable agreements in which foreign governments agree to increase purchases of American products and to limit their exports. Authoritarian governments that view the nation, not individual producers and consumers, as the focus of economic activity have some ability to make good on a promise of that nature, but political systems based on the protection of individual rights do not.