Against the run of play, I predicted there would be no recession in 2022 and 2023. I was right. Today, I’m predicting that there will, in fact, be a Trump slump. Why?
For two reasons that have nothing to do with partisanship. First, the economy, both on a global basis and in America, runs on trust. No one in the world is less trustworthy than Trump, so nothing he says can be relied upon by either consumers or investors. Second, the American economy is fueled by the spending of relatively affluent people in blue states–the kind of people Trump really hates, and the feeling is mutual. When their retirement savings and real estate values are threatened, they will pull back, and then what?
As Dickie V might say, “Recession city, baby!”