As I’ve noted previously, Erdogan puts a much higher priority on crushing the Kurds than he does on defeating IS, which creates a serious conflict with American interests. I have to assume he takes that position because he believes that IS is an ephemeral problem, while the Kurds will always be there. If so, he’s probably right.
Due in part to this divergence in interests and in part to his apparent desire to chip away at liberal democracy, Erdogan is flirting with Putin. Given that the West has far more to offer him than Putin does, one imagines that his ultimate objective is to use Putin as leverage to get a better deal (i.e., extradition of Gulen, less criticism on human rights, and more sympathy with his Kurdish problem) from the West.
Unfortunately for him, the West has options, too. The NYT ran an article a few days ago in which it was revealed that Obama is considering sending more weapons to the Kurds. Articles like that don’t appear for no reason; it was a clear attempt by the Obama Administration to send a message to Erdogan that he shouldn’t try to push us too far.
In all likelihood, when it is all said and done, the parties will muddle through, and both sides will get a little bit of what they want. The only thing that Putin can give him in the long run is support for his strong man routine, which doesn’t exactly pay the bills.