It can be hard to believe at times, but in 1960, the vast majority of the people I have identified as reactionaries were Democrats, and the GOP had a reasonably legitimate claim to be the “Party of Lincoln.” Obviously, times have changed. How did it happen?
It happened in stages, as follows:
1. The Sixties: The Civil Rights Movement, Culture Wars, and Vietnam: Democratic leaders were responsible for a massive escalation of the Vietnam War, but the rank-and-file had turned against it by the end of the decade. Nixon continued the war (at least for a while), embraced the “Silent Majority,” and promoted “law and order” against the claims of the counterculture and African-Americans. The identification of the GOP with white racism, conservative cultural values, and a militaristic foreign policy began here, although the trend did not become irreversible until later.
2. The Eighties: Reagan, the Religious Right, and Swagger: While Reagan did little to push the agenda of the religious right, he made the tie between them and the GOP explicit for the first time. His swaggering style remains an essential part of the GOP brand to this day.
3. The Nineties: Rise of the Conservative Media: Right-wing radio, cable channels, and internet sites reduced the effectiveness of nonpartisan gatekeepers and permitted reactionaries to live in an information bubble. While Clinton, due to his unusual background and political skills, managed to win a few states in the Deep South, by 2000, the electoral map had ossified: Al Gore, a Southerner running in a time of peace and an economic boom, could not win a single Southern state.
4. The 21st Century: Failure of the GOP Elites; Globalization Bites; More Culture War Losses: The GOP establishment lost credibility with reactionary voters as a result of the failure of the Iraq War and the Great Recession. The election of an African-American President with little apparent sympathy for rural lifestyles and values polarized the voters to an even greater degree than before. Job losses in traditional industries, wage stagnation, and growing inequality due to globalization and technological change made things even worse for white workers. And then there was gay marriage. . .
When you add Trump’s celebrity and unusual talents to this stew of racism, frustrated cultural conservatism, overt nationalism, and elite failure, you wind up with the poisonous mixture that is being offered to us today.