We’ll probably never know much about what was happening from the Hamas side, but we now know for certain that Bibi had plenty of previous opportunities to make a very similar ceasefire deal; prior to today, he deferred to the far right members of his cabinet. Three days before the inauguration, we have an agreement. What has changed?
I think it comes down to three things. First, Bibi is now more confident in his ability to win an election in spite of his failures before October 7 as a result of events in Syria and Lebanon. Second, he wanted Trump to get at least some of the credit for the deal. But third, I think he and Trump have decided to focus their attention on the head of the snake–Iran–and they view Gaza in its current condition as a sideshow and an unnecessary distraction.
On that point, they are undoubtedly correct.