You’re probably familiar with the World War I analogy in which the US plays the role of the principal status quo power–the UK–and China is Germany, the up-and-coming revisionist country. But who would play the other roles in the analogy?
The EU would be the Austro-Hungarian Empire, because it is a multi-national entity in relative decline that is very difficult to govern. India–not really aligned with either alliance and looking for the best deal–would be Italy, of course. Japan and South Korea–large economies that are nonetheless dwarfed by an aggressive neighbor–would be France. And Russia? It would be, well, Russia–an economic pygmy with a fearsome military and imperial ambitions.
Who will play Serbia? Probably Taiwan.