The Russians and Iranians have fled Syria along with their client, just as the Russians were forced to leave Afghanistan decades ago. It doesn’t just happen to Americans, folks; nation-building in the Third World usually doesn’t work, but giving the keys to the most competent thug you can find can fail, as well.
The Iranian forward defense approach is in tatters. Its proxies have been neutered. Its air defenses don’t work against Israeli attacks. The public despises the regime, the economy is in bad shape, and a succession crisis looms. What happens now?
The Iranian government has two choices: it can build a bomb, call for more Russian aid, and double down on repression and austerity at home; or it can make a deal with the Americans and Israelis that imposes more limits on its ability to project force than the previous nuclear deal in exchange for a promise to forego war and regime change. Which will it choose?
In the short run, expect mixed signals in an effort to buy time. After that, I make no predictions. The Supreme Leader will want to double down, but even he may conclude that is no longer a viable option.