Imagine that you are Vladimir Putin. In a sense, the war in Ukraine has been a huge strategic failure; you only control about 20 percent of the country’s land mass (not the most valuable part) after suffering huge losses, and NATO has been expanded to try to stop you. You have also lost influence to the Chinese in the near abroad. And yet, your economy is humming, you’re gaining ground, and you succeeded in creating the thoroughly fascist state you always wanted in response to the war. It’s a mixed bag, to be sure.
Trump is trying to impose a deal on you and the Ukrainians that ratifies your gains and keeps Ukraine out of NATO. Should you go for it?
On the one hand, your country could use a break, and if Ukraine is genuinely left without any guarantees of NATO support in the future, you can swallow it later. On the other hand, if peace breaks out, your people will be demanding some relief from your new restrictions, which is a minus for you. In addition, Trump will be taking credit for the peace. Why not just keep going, particularly since Trump is bound to cut off American aid to Ukraine regardless of what you do?
Both choices have some appeal. It probably comes down to the degree to which the Americans promise not to aid Ukraine in the future. In other words, does the agreement look more like the ceasefire in Korea or Munich? TBD.