In 2016, the British people decided they had had enough of Polish plumbers. They wanted to build walls and close gates in order to preserve the character of their country. They wanted out of Europe.
When opponents of Brexit told the public that cutting ties with Europe would result in lower or no growth, the voters chose to believe a flamboyant populist who insisted that the UK could have its cake and eat it, too. They then voted him into office to finish the job, which he did, in his shambolic fashion.
By 2024, the British public was suffering from buyer’s remorse. A substantial majority thought that Brexit was a mistake. Their revised opinion was supported by the data, which indicated that the critics of Brexit had been right in 2016. It was unlikely, however, that the wrong could be made right that far after the fact.
Trump’s plans for mass deportations and tariffs are the American equivalent of Brexit. They won’t bring back the economy of 2019, and they will make him very unpopular very quickly. The real question is whether Trump will then back down and spin the program as a success–he has been known to do that on occasion–or respond by doubling down and using the military, the DOJ, and Homeland Security to stifle dissent.
Either is possible. We’ll find out soon enough.