The Conservatives were crushed in the UK election. Extremists on both the right and the left dominated the French one. The German left-leaning coalition is clearly heading for electoral disaster. Now even the Japanese Liberal Democrats have lost their majority. All over the world, it seems, the electorate is angry. What appears at first glance to be a wave of populism is actually an attack on incumbents, regardless of who or where they are.
For all that, Harris has a roughly 50 percent chance to win next week. Why? For three reasons. First, the American economy is in good shape in spite of what most voters say in public. Second, the American electorate is more polarized on cultural issues than its Asian and European counterparts, which creates a high floor and a low ceiling for both parties. Donald Trump is the third reason. He inspires intense opposition in a way that the leaders of parties in other countries do not.