Imagine that you are Xi Jinping, and you are watching the American election with great, if somewhat morbid, interest. Which candidate do you view as the lesser of two evils?
Harris is the more predictable choice. She will continue to promote Biden’s policy of flexible containment. She will also keep imposing restrictions on the use of American and European technology. It is unlikely, however, that she will propose any sort of new universal tariffs on Chinese goods. In the short run, she is the more comfortable choice.
Trump will inflict immediate pain on your economy with his tariffs. He will, however, alienate America’s allies, which will be of great assistance to you in the longer run. He may also be amenable to a lopsided deal on managed trade or even Taiwan. Is that possibility worth the short-term pain?
You have little ability to influence the outcome of the election, so in all likelihood, you just sit back and deal with the consequences. Que sera, sera.