Israel somehow managed to program the pagers of Hezbollah functionaries in a way that caused them to explode. As a display of Israeli cyberpower, this would be hard to beat. By itself, however, this action does not change the military dynamics at the Lebanese border; it is a provocation, not a first strike. Why did the Israelis do it?
It is clear that the cabinet is spoiling for war with Hezbollah, as evidenced by recent statements by Israeli officials to their American counterparts. Hezbollah will be humiliated and is likely to retaliate in a significant way. The Israelis could then use that retaliation as a justification for war. Then what?
An offensive war against Hezbollah is completely contrary to the policy of the US government. Bibi and his buddies will nonetheless be demanding a blank check in Lebanon. That will put Biden and Harris in a very difficult position; to agree is bad policy and will offend Arab-American voters, but to refuse the blank check will give an opening to Trump with Jewish voters and national security hawks.
There was always a danger that Bibi would engage in a wider war in order to keep himself in power and to help Trump. I think that is what is going on here.
Everything depends on how vigorously Hezbollah responds. There is some reason to believe they will be cautious. We’ll see.