The election is still a coin flip. We will probably go to bed that November night without knowing the winner. But at some point, most likely a few days later, the identity of our next president will become clear. Assume, for purposes of argument, that it is Harris. What will Trump do then?
In some respects, the situation will not be as dire as it was in 2020. Trump does not have control over the military or the DOJ this time, so a coup is much less likely. He won’t have any influence over what the Vice President does, and most of his potential legal theories about the invalidity of mail voting will be foreclosed this time around due to previous judicial decisions, the end of the pandemic, and new state legislation. The Capitol will be heavily guarded in January 2025, so mob action in Washington won’t work, either. In short, Trump will have far fewer options than he did in 2020 and 2021.
He will, of course, be screaming about fraud. The battle will be fought on two fronts. First of all, he will file baseless lawsuits claiming fraud, more as a public relations message than as a serious attempt to overturn the election results. The more significant action will take place at elections offices and around the legislatures in swing states. You can expect state and local MAGA officials to do their best to prevent certification in the ordinary course of business, and GOP legislatures, prompted by right-wing mobs, to try to overturn the popular will. That’s when things will get really sticky.
Oh, and I’m guessing some local governments and even some deep red state governments will openly refuse to accept anyone except Trump as our next president. Don’t be surprised if there is some violence as a result, as federal troops may have to intervene to restore order.