What the Fed Really Did

The Economist insists on giving the Fed the credit for the fall in inflation. Is that accurate?

Objectively, no. Increasing interest rates did nothing to resolve supply chain problems arising from the pandemic, which were the principal cause of higher inflation. Housing costs, if anything, were increased as a result of the fall in supply caused by “golden handcuffs.” Gas and food prices are unresponsive to changes in interest rates. Higher rates increased the deficit and, therefore, public spending. Greedflation became less of a problem when consumers started using their power to fight back. And so on.

But that is not the entire story; there is a subjective component to inflation, as well. Future expectations of inflation are driven by the beliefs of the public. Even some left-leaning economists argued that higher rates were required. The Fed took rapid action and talked tough. As a result, the public came to believe, rightly or wrongly, that the Fed was doing what was necessary to fight inflation. In the end, belief became reality; expectations were kept under control, and the war was won.

The answer to the question, then, is partly yes and partly no.