Trump’s supporters like to argue that he created more stability in the world with his unpredictability. As the story goes, the bad guys are terrified of the madman with nuclear weapons, so they stay on the straight and narrow. The good guy with the gun beats the bad guy with the gun, because he projects strength, which is all that matters in international affairs.
In reality, we have seen Trump’s foreign policy act before, and it is much more predictable and feeble than he likes to pretend. Here are its core principles:
- Trump, unlike his predecessors, likes to talk about nuclear war, but none of it is credible. He really isn’t a warmonger. His weapon of preference is economic sanctions, most of which don’t work.
- Trump prefers dealing with strongmen, who remind him of himself, over democratic leaders.
- Trump can be manipulated through flattery. He also demands to be the center of attention at all times.
- Trump is a neo-mercantilist who is motivated primarily by money and wants to make deals, particularly if there is something in it for his company.
- Trump doesn’t believe in a community of values or universal human rights. To him, America’s allies are just moochers who take advantage of us by hiding under our nuclear umbrella. They should be made to pay for the privilege.
- Trump believes in playing good cop, bad cop and keeps his options open until the last minute. Even his agreements can be torn up on a moment’s notice.
- Trump is a classic bully. Stand up to him and he’ll fold. Fortunately for him, he is good at spinning his failures as successes, so he typically doesn’t have to follow through with his threats in order to maintain his credibility, at least in his own eyes.
- Trump believes in instinct and personal relationships rather than preparation and understanding of the issues.
In short, while TR walked softly and carried a big stick, Trump talks stickly and carries a big soft.