(This week, I’ll be focusing on the impacts that President Trump would have on American institutions)
Whether you think that Paul Ryan is the idealistic keeper of the flame of pure limited government conservatism, or just a charlatan who uses flim-flam and magic asterisks to redistribute wealth from the poor to the rich, you have to admit that he stands for something outside of his own ambitions. In that, he differs dramatically from Trump, whose only real ideology is self-adoration; the two will mix like oil and water. President Trump would undoubtedly find much more satisfaction in dealing with the wily, cynical Mitch McConnell, whose principal purpose in life is to keep the GOP in power no matter what it means to the country.
Nevertheless, Ryan is there, and Trump will have to work with him. My guess is that the two would reach a “grand bargain” of sorts very early in the Trump Administration, to consist of the following:
- Congressional support for Trump’s protectionist agenda;
- Congressional support for additional funds for the military, homeland security, immigration enforcement, and the wall; and
- Trump’s support for the House GOP tax cut plan over his own.
The real question is what would happen to entitlements. Trump has publicly pledged not to cut programs for the elderly, who are the most important part of his base, while Ryan and the House GOP are determined to do so in order to fund their enormous tax cuts. My best guess is that Trump would do a 180 on this issue in order to get the rest of his agenda through the system and avoid looking like a pitiful, helpless strong man. I could be wrong on that, however.
Let’s hope we never find out.