Today’s decision on the gun case doesn’t eliminate the Thomas test, which is based purely on gun regulations as they existed hundreds of years ago. It makes the test more flexible by requiring an “analogue” to the regulation in question, not a “twin.”
In other words, we have gone from an extremely stupid bright line rule to one that is subjective and unpredictable. The lower courts won’t know what to make of it. There will be lots more litigation before the Supremes before anyone really knows what it means. In practice, I suspect that only overwhelmingly popular regulations such as the one in the instant case will survive the new test.
It’s an improvement, but not one worth much celebration. Hunter Biden certainly won’t be celebrating; the rigorous version of the Thomas test was his best hope of overturning his conviction on the gun charge.