Here are my musings on today’s events:
- The prosecution is going to present this as a sort of prequel to January 6: Trump steals the 2016 election by paying hush money to a porn star.
- The early trial date is getting the headlines, but the real story here is that the judge rejected Trump’s fairly plausible legal defense. That’s two shots of bad news in one day.
- Trump is, of course, complaining that the trial date interferes with his campaigning. The truth is that his campaign strategy revolves around his daily crucifixions by the judicial system. The trial, in that sense, will help him more than it hurts him with the GOP electorate. Whether the same is true with independent voters is another matter.
- The trial is going to come down to a credibility test between Michael Cohen and Stormy Daniels on one hand and Trump on the other. I don’t see how Trump can avoid testifying if he wants to win.
- Imagine being the prosecutor who gets to puncture the credibility of the man who told 30,000 lies in office. It should be like shooting fish in a barrel.
- Unfortunately, it probably won’t be on TV.
- Trump’s base will not accept the outcome if he is convicted, no matter what the evidence shows. They will chalk it up to a biased judge and a blue state jury. To them, it will just be more proof of how much the system hates their hero.
- I can’t imagine Nikki Haley withdrawing from the race until the outcome of the trial is known, and its political impacts can be felt.