Everything in America obviously revolves around the election. I don’t have the requisite level of confidence in the outcome, so I’m not going to predict the winner of the presidential race. I will, however, predict the following:
- There will be no Trump trials until after the primaries are effectively over. There may be none at all.
- Trump will be on the ballot in all fifty states.
- The polls will look better for Biden on Election Day than they do today, as the voters will start comparing him to Trump instead of some ideal Republican.
- As always, the election will be determined by about 100,000 swing voters in purple states. Those of us in deep red or blue states will have no real influence on the outcome.
- The state of the economy will dictate the votes of most of those swing voters. Third party candidates will also have a significant influence on the outcome.
- If Biden wins, Trump will say the election was rigged and once again call for an insurrection.
- If that occurs, the action will be mostly in red states. State and local officials and law enforcement will take leadership roles. The situation will be far more dangerous than it was in 2021.
- The GOP will win a tiny majority in the Senate. That won’t amount to much, as Collins and Murkowski are to the GOP as Sinema and Manchin are to the Democrats. The party that wins the House will have a tiny majority; I don’t know which party it will be.