I don’t expect the Colorado Supreme Court’s decision to throw Trump off the primary ballot to survive US Supreme Court scrutiny. The real question is whether the Court will use a broad or a more limited rationale to justify its decision. An order finding that the Fourteenth Amendment doesn’t apply to primaries, based on the political system that existed in the 1860s, would not have much of an impact on public opinion, or the ongoing criminal trials; a decision, based on the record made in Colorado, that January 6 was not an “insurrection” would be much more meaningful. In a bad way.
The Court would be wise to avoid making broad pronouncements on January 6 at this stage of the process. Will it take my advice? We’ll see.