Like you, I saw the article about Biden losing to Trump in swing states, and I had the same sinking feeling in the pit of my stomach. Biden’s poor showing is primarily the result of the electorate, at this early stage of the process, comparing him to the almighty rather than the alternative. It is useful, therefore, to remind the world what a second Trump term would entail before the next similar poll is taken.
I have split the implications of a second Trump presidency into what certainly will, probably will, and could happen. Here is my analysis:
- CERTAINTIES: Trump will abandon Ukraine to its fate, routinely ignore court orders, replace competent civil servants with obedient hacks, engage in behavior that most normal people would view as corrupt, damage our educational system, institute a regime of unbridled cruelty at the border, and turn his back on efforts to limit the impacts of climate change.
- LIKELY OUTCOMES: America will probably exit NATO, embrace Putin, permanently alienate our allies, start a low level war with Mexico, attack Iran, cut taxes on the wealthy, enact a national ban on abortion, offer to sell out Taiwan for increased agricultural exports, and increase prices by imposing an across-the-board tariff on friends and foes alike.
- POSSIBILITIES: Trump completely destroys liberal democracy in America. Using a concocted emergency as a pretext, and employing a newly politicized military as a weapon, he throws his opponents in jail, shuts down dissenting opinions on the internet and in the MSM, and declares martial law in the blue states. The Republicans in Congress make no real effort to prevent any of this, and the Supreme Court is powerless to stop him. America is now officially a white Christian nationalist nation with a dictator at the top.
If you’re tempted to vote for Trump on the basis that you would like to bring back the economy of 2019 (never mind the subsequent pandemic response and the insurrection), please consider two things. First, Trump has no clue as to how to do that under today’s changed circumstances; second, read the list I have provided above. Even if he could turn back time with the economy, would it really be worth it?