Trump’s federal cases went to trial during the campaign. To no one’s surprise, he was convicted in both, but he stayed out of prison pending appeals. The base shrugged it off. Whether the electorate as a whole would do so remained an open question.
At this point, Trump was clearly running, not just to run the country, but to stay out of jail. We already knew from 2020 that he recognized no limits. What would he do under these, more extreme circumstances?
Fortunately, this time, he isn’t in charge of the government, and he can’t count on the support of the military. That said, conditions in purple states are about to get very, very hairy, and sporadic violence is more likely than not.