Jeb! released his tax cut plan earlier this week. In a nutshell, it provides enormous cuts for the wealthy and modest relief for everyone else. It also contains limitations on deductions over certain income thresholds and eliminates the “carried interest” loophole for hedge fund managers. In economic terms, and in the context of the other, much larger, decreases, the latter proposals are more symbolic than anything else.
Having said that, in politics, symbols matter, which leads to two questions:
- What is Jeb! trying to accomplish with these concessions to popular opinion?
- Will he succeed?
I think Jeb! is making a concerted effort to position himself as the adult in the room who is willing to reach out to Democrats and Independents in order to get things done. This, in turn, is intended to appeal to PBP voters who are concerned that the rhetoric from the right is damaging the GOP’s image among moderate general election voters. In other words, vote for me, because I am the only GOP candidate who can actually win in 2016.
This approach should appeal to more moderate voters. On the other hand, it will turn off the WSJ/supply sider crowd, who may then decide that the Rubio plan, in spite of its unhealthy (in their eyes) interest in cutting taxes for working people, is superior. The Jeb! plan, in short, should be viewed as a political gamble that will only work if the WSJ and the donor class decide to give him a pass for tactical reasons. Whether it will succeed or not will be seen in the next few weeks.