No dictator can afford to look vulnerable; if the fear he inspires dissipates, he can lose power in the blink of an eye. In light of that, how will Putin respond to yesterday’s events? You can expect him to escalate in Ukraine and to unleash a new wave of repression at home to send the message that he’s still the boss.
But what of the Chinese? Prigozhin is yet another warning that they have made a bad investment. Do they start inching away from someone they have reason to believe is a loser, or do they double down and hope for the best even though they know Putin can’t last forever, even under the best case scenario? Given Xi’s behavior to date, the latter is the better bet.