I fully expect Trump to be convicted of the new federal charges. His principal defenses–that Biden did the same thing, and that the offenses are trivial–may work in the court of public opinion, but not in a real courtroom. It is pretty clear from news reports that Smith has amassed plenty of evidence to rebut Trump’s only legal defense, which relates to intent. He’s going to go down.
But what does it matter? The pending criminal case won’t stop him from campaigning. The base will take this as even more proof that he is the victim of a corrupt establishment no matter what the record shows and a jury says. He’ll just pardon himself if he wins the election, and the DOJ will stand by him once he is in office. The only way he spends any time in jail is if he loses, in which case he will just be a pathetic old has-been, anyway. So what is the practical point of the indictment?
Smith is making a powerful conceptual argument in favor of the rule of law. He is absolutely right to do so. It just won’t work in the real world.