Biden and McCarthy are meeting today to discuss the debt ceiling. I can pretty well guarantee that no meaningful progress will be made. Then what?
Here’s how it will play out:
- Efforts to detach reasonable Republicans from the rest of the party before the deadline will fail as a result of pressure applied by McCarthy. The country will be on the brink.
- Biden goes on TV about 24 hours before the projected default day and announces he is relying on the Fourteenth Amendment to pay all of America’s obligations. Payments are made as usual. Markets fall, but do not collapse.
- McCarthy is, or claims to be, outraged. But what can he do? If he and his GOP henchmen file suit to shoot the escaping hostage, they will pay a big political price for it, and the Supreme Court is likely to say the issue is non-justiciable. If he finds someone else to do his dirty work for him, his plaintiff will almost certainly lack standing. There are apparently no good options here.
- Nevertheless, someone sues. The case goes to the Supreme Court, which refuses to hear it on the merits.
- A massive world recession is averted.
Why do I say this will happen? Because all of the principals win under this scenario. Biden looks like a strong leader, unites the party behind him, staves off a disaster, and defangs the debt ceiling forever. McCarthy gets to keep his job, because he can justly say he did everything the MAGA crowd wanted him to do. The Supreme Court enhances its standing in the eyes of the public without actually ruling against the GOP on the merits. Mitch protects the donor class. The moderates who refused to flip protect their wealthy constituents without having to vote against the base. Even Trump and the MAGA base get something they want–more fuel for the outrage machine and another issue for a fundraising letter. Since they’re typically more mouth than action, this result should be right in their wheelhouse.
It’s perfect, unless you’re Putin or Xi.