The legal battle has barely begun, but Alvin Bragg has already lost the public relations war. He has tried to place the indictment in the broader context of election fraud, but the right’s narrative–that he is a political hack looking to advance his career by taking down a president over a mere paperwork problem–is winning. Even winning the case, at this point, might not be enough to change the public’s perceptions.
The Jean Carroll case is a different matter. Trump’s attorneys are essentially putting on a criminal defense with no witnesses in a civil case with a much lower burden of proof. It is hard for me to see how they can win under those circumstances. If they don’t, Trump will run his campaign labeled by a jury as a rapist, and he won’t be able to blame either the judge or a prosecutor for his problems. Are 2024 swing voters likely to be concerned about that? Will the Never Trumpers and the AATs be emboldened? One would have to think so.