We can be reasonably certain of the following:
- The issue will go down to the wire.
- The public will be screaming for a solution.
- Moderate Republicans in Biden districts will be discussing potential solutions with moderate Democrats.
- McCarthy will be demanding–at least in public–that the moderates stay the course. He will assure them that Biden will cave if they can just hang on a little longer.
Here’s what we don’t know:
- Will the moderate GOP members listen to McCarthy or their constituents when push comes to shove?
- Will McCarthy play a double game–giving the moderates a green light to negotiate in private, while bashing the notion of negotiations in public?
- If everything else fails, will Biden invoke the Fourteenth Amendment, or will he ride out the chaos and hope the GOP gets the blame?
We won’t know the answers to those questions for a few months. In the meantime, keep the anti-nausea pills handy, because you’re going to need them.