Citing a famous Latin proverb most recently used to ill effect by Matt Damon, Ross Douthat argues that Ron DeSantis has to run now, or let his best opportunity slip through his fingers. There is an element of ideological self-interest to the argument; Douthat probably views DeSantis as the closest thing to his 21st century William Jennings Bryan that is on offer. That doesn’t necessarily make him wrong, however. Would DeSantis be making a mistake by declining to run?
Let’s analyze it. If he doesn’t run, Trump is far more likely than not to be the GOP nominee. If he wins the general election, he is likely to discredit right-wing populism during his administration even more than he has already, which would operate to the detriment of DeSantis. If, as is more likely, he loses to Biden, the way would be open for DeSantis in 2028, but would the GOP be looking for a warmed-over Trump after yet another loss by the real thing? Would the war on wokeness still have the resonance it has with the base today? Would DeSantis, now out of office, still be the man of the hour for the base, or will the party have passed him by?
I don’t know the answer to those questions, but my best guess is that Douthat is right. DeSantis has plenty of money and lots of potential support, if he plays his cards shrewdly, which he has not, to date. If he doesn’t run after building himself up for such a long time, he won’t just look like a fool: he will be one.