MBS and the Saudis are riding high. They have just signed an agreement with Iran that appears–at least in the short run–to eliminate any significant external threats to the kingdom, thereby eliminating the need for any dependence on America. The Ukraine War has made it clear to the rest of the world that Saudi petroleum will be needed for the foreseeable future. MBS has wiped out any meaningful domestic resistance to his reforms. Even climate change isn’t that big a deal; unlike, say, Iraq and Iran, the country can afford air conditioning. Life is good.
But, as I’ve noted before, the rulers who successfully dragged their nations, kicking and screaming, into the present are typically known as “The Great,” as in Peter the Great and Frederick the Great. Is MBS “the Great” or “the Mediocre?” If he’s the latter, and the record to date suggests he is, he should remember the example of the Shah of Iran. Big changes imposed by autocrats over the objections of conservative religious leaders lead to big backlashes when things don’t go well, and then what?